* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 53 50 41 34 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 53 50 41 34 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 56 51 46 36 28 25 26 29 34 38 DIS V (KT) G08R 40 40 42 42 41 35 34 33 38 36 30 27 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 23 37 40 42 44 30 11 3 6 12 12 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 3 4 5 4 2 0 -3 1 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 69 47 48 51 64 78 74 57 62 115 101 63 N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.7 21.2 13.7 11.1 14.4 12.6 12.6 12.8 11.7 9.2 9.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 89 73 70 73 72 70 69 69 67 68 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 102 82 70 69 70 70 67 66 66 65 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -54.0 -52.3 -51.3 -50.7 -49.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 46 42 42 50 54 61 59 57 59 62 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 19 20 20 16 16 18 18 16 14 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 36 49 41 12 -15 39 83 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 45 39 53 72 52 26 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 767 722 522 324 404 814 1349 1175 897 633 520 748 N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.8 40.0 42.0 44.1 45.8 48.6 52.2 55.5 57.8 60.1 62.6 65.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.7 55.8 53.6 51.2 48.0 41.8 34.7 28.1 22.6 15.8 9.6 1.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 22 27 28 27 26 30 22 19 20 20 24 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -5. -14. -21. -26. -31. -36. -43. -63. -71.