* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * COSME EP041995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 61 57 52 41 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 61 57 52 41 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 63 59 55 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 33 27 26 24 23 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 11 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 4 16 15 356 323 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.3 23.2 23.5 23.6 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 95 95 98 99 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 47 45 41 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -15 -21 -25 -34 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 19 13 4 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 685 726 843 956 1073 1276 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.3 21.1 20.8 20.4 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.3 119.5 120.6 121.8 123.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -9. -15. -19. -24. -29. -31. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -13. -24. -33. -42. -50. -56. -61. -66. -71.