* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 54 52 48 39 32 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 54 52 48 39 32 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 53 48 43 33 27 23 23 26 30 33 DIS V (KT) G09R 51 43 45 44 40 36 33 30 37 39 31 26 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 23 35 38 44 39 28 18 12 16 22 24 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 5 4 6 6 1 -1 -2 0 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 76 60 56 57 67 82 74 68 65 90 90 69 N/A SST (C) 25.7 23.5 15.5 11.6 10.0 13.7 12.1 12.5 12.6 12.2 10.3 8.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 100 75 71 70 72 70 68 68 69 68 67 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 91 72 70 69 69 67 66 65 67 66 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -54.9 -54.4 -53.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -49.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 49 45 44 50 59 60 57 57 63 64 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 21 22 21 17 17 17 18 17 15 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 43 57 29 22 -7 33 43 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 65 53 64 68 62 26 18 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 668 592 382 357 539 1009 1495 1158 945 679 460 640 N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.0 41.4 43.4 45.5 47.5 50.5 53.5 55.9 57.9 59.2 61.6 64.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.1 54.5 51.7 48.7 45.6 39.2 33.0 27.7 23.3 17.2 10.5 3.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 26 29 30 28 24 22 17 15 20 21 20 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -19. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -7. -16. -23. -31. -36. -41. -50. -68. -76.