* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * COSME EP041995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 61 55 48 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 61 55 48 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 62 57 51 41 34 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 36 32 28 26 25 20 17 12 11 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 5 1 2 8 8 16 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 8 8 3 1 4 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 354 72 294 290 247 270 283 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.4 22.7 22.4 22.0 21.9 21.4 21.2 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 95 87 83 78 77 72 68 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 3 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 47 43 39 38 35 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 16 15 14 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -40 -48 -43 -38 -28 -48 -47 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 19 5 -20 -9 -10 -25 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 481 428 430 447 422 448 437 454 453 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.8 23.5 23.8 24.2 24.2 24.7 24.8 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 115.9 116.3 116.7 116.9 117.3 117.7 118.1 117.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 2 3 2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -13. -23. -31. -39. -46. -50. -52. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. -22. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -10. -17. -34. -48. -65. -80. -87. -94.-100.-107.