* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 53 50 40 33 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 53 50 40 33 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 50 45 35 28 25 25 27 31 DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 52 46 50 47 45 40 36 33 39 37 32 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 20 36 38 40 35 25 14 8 5 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 4 3 7 7 1 -1 -5 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 55 43 48 51 61 72 58 44 39 57 110 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.3 18.6 12.4 10.1 13.5 11.9 12.3 12.0 11.1 9.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 81 72 71 73 71 69 68 67 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 76 70 70 71 69 67 66 65 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.7 -54.3 -52.4 -50.5 -49.0 -49.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 48 44 43 50 60 65 60 54 54 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 22 24 24 19 18 18 17 17 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 31 52 44 31 7 55 68 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 51 44 68 77 45 27 19 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 739 710 456 319 500 1018 1419 1044 785 548 472 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.1 40.4 42.6 44.8 46.8 50.6 54.4 57.5 59.7 61.3 62.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.6 55.2 52.7 50.0 46.2 39.2 31.7 25.3 19.0 13.1 6.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 25 29 31 31 30 28 21 18 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -5. -15. -22. -29. -36. -41. -49. -67. -75.