* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * COSME EP041995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 59 55 47 40 33 25 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 59 55 47 40 33 25 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 65 62 59 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 25 20 18 20 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 15 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 4 356 349 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 103 104 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 48 48 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -46 -35 -27 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 11 21 1 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 605 726 848 967 1082 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 20.9 20.2 19.8 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.0 118.9 120.0 120.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 789 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -21. -26. -28. -31. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -25. -32. -40. -45. -50. -55. -60.