* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DALILA EP051995 07/27/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 31 29 26 22 20 21 20 22 24 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 31 29 26 22 20 21 20 22 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 23 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 17 17 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 29 26 23 20 21 19 13 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -6 -3 -3 -5 -4 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 254 253 246 246 260 268 266 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 135 135 136 133 127 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 12 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 69 65 61 56 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 9 9 8 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 36 37 29 45 56 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 42 30 37 33 -2 33 9 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 683 725 746 800 768 895 1137 1284 1428 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.4 16.8 16.5 16.5 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.3 110.7 111.5 112.5 115.6 118.7 120.9 122.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 10 11 17 14 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -9. -10. -8. -6.