* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DALILA EP051995 07/27/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 29 28 26 23 22 24 24 31 34 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 29 28 26 23 22 24 24 31 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 23 21 20 20 20 21 22 25 V (KT) G01R 32 20 18 18 17 18 16 19 16 18 17 15 14 SHEAR (KT) 39 30 22 22 23 17 12 10 8 3 3 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -4 -4 0 -4 -5 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 7 SHEAR DIR 247 254 246 237 238 255 253 254 256 251 251 54 4 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.5 26.3 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 136 135 136 138 138 129 127 131 131 134 133 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 69 67 64 59 60 58 59 58 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 55 54 48 41 26 40 55 53 53 65 71 85 78 200 MB DIV 68 69 42 52 48 4 32 8 5 47 50 46 51 LAND (KM) 752 770 761 818 811 925 1113 1330 1475 1762 1884 1990 2028 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.3 16.3 16.3 15.4 15.1 14.3 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.3 109.9 111.0 111.4 115.1 118.0 121.3 123.2 125.9 127.1 127.7 127.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 10 9 12 15 17 12 11 9 6 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -17. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -6. -6. 1. 4.