* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DALILA EP051995 07/27/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 30 28 25 22 18 17 16 17 17 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 30 28 25 22 18 17 16 17 17 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 24 20 16 14 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 30 25 20 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -6 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 261 268 259 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 138 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 70 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 39 52 58 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 51 33 46 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 621 680 729 821 844 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.7 16.0 15.8 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.1 110.9 112.2 114.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13.