* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DALILA EP051995 07/27/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 30 28 26 23 20 19 18 20 21 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 30 28 26 23 20 19 18 20 21 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 21 17 13 15 17 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 21 17 18 20 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 -3 -5 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 263 262 257 261 274 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.6 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 138 138 131 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 10 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 68 63 62 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 8 8 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 35 41 56 60 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 48 36 24 3 11 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 622 667 716 786 834 996 1175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.1 16.7 17.2 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.1 110.9 112.1 114.5 117.4 119.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 17 20 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -10. -9.