* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DALILA EP051995 07/27/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 31 30 29 27 24 21 20 21 22 24 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 31 30 29 27 24 21 20 21 22 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 24 23 23 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 26 23 22 19 19 19 19 20 17 16 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 31 24 18 15 17 16 9 9 7 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -5 -2 -2 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 254 256 240 241 247 251 274 278 353 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.1 26.2 26.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 136 136 136 132 126 125 127 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 11 12 10 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 68 64 63 59 59 59 58 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 28 27 20 49 52 50 67 67 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 50 40 38 27 19 38 12 10 24 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 678 654 693 794 792 914 1094 1244 1462 1639 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.0 16.6 16.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.0 110.0 111.5 112.6 115.5 118.3 120.9 123.3 125.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 13 13 13 12 14 13 8 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6.