* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DALILA EP051995 07/27/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 29 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 29 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 25 22 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 30 27 22 22 19 15 15 12 9 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 39 33 29 28 27 18 12 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -6 -5 -5 -4 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 250 242 232 234 242 250 259 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 134 134 135 132 125 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 11 13 11 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 70 66 65 61 62 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 13 13 12 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 37 32 23 22 28 47 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 68 70 54 37 0 39 15 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 799 760 714 698 703 672 874 1022 1042 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.1 110.0 110.3 110.9 112.7 116.1 118.3 119.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 10 14 13 9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -17. -20. -23. -25. -23. -22.