* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DALILA EP051995 07/27/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 35 36 34 32 29 27 26 27 27 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 35 36 34 32 29 27 26 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 16 15 12 14 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 27 23 17 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -5 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 272 283 274 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 133 134 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 52 56 55 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 80 78 86 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 637 706 754 798 854 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.8 110.4 111.0 111.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3.