* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DEAN AL041995 07/29/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 46 54 60 64 67 71 73 74 74 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 46 54 60 43 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 48 53 39 30 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 20 20 22 23 25 28 24 18 14 16 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 7 9 12 15 14 20 18 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 0 -4 1 -7 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 112 124 118 107 96 83 47 61 49 47 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 161 163 166 171 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 136 140 142 148 154 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 12 13 10 14 12 16 14 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 64 64 63 64 65 64 69 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 13 12 13 12 11 9 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 28 39 28 10 5 -15 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 16 -2 13 -10 15 21 14 49 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 401 388 384 344 322 229 81 -101 -299 -536 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 25.9 25.7 26.0 26.2 27.6 28.4 29.6 30.6 31.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.7 88.6 89.2 90.1 92.7 94.7 96.2 98.2 100.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 10 13 9 8 12 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):198/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 24. 30. 34. 37. 41. 43. 44. 44.