* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DEAN AL041995 07/29/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 55 63 69 72 74 73 72 70 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 55 63 51 34 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 56 48 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) G01R 26 22 20 24 25 34 28 25 17 18 21 16 17 SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 5 9 15 15 16 19 21 24 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 2 -2 -5 0 -7 4 -9 0 -9 2 SHEAR DIR 92 98 99 88 98 98 47 62 52 48 46 43 45 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 164 165 168 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 140 142 145 151 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 16 13 12 12 13 10 14 12 16 13 16 13 17 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 62 63 61 62 63 65 70 69 66 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 14 14 15 15 16 14 15 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 39 51 33 12 9 -16 7 -13 -7 -15 -21 200 MB DIV 48 18 -10 -1 -10 15 36 9 39 5 39 6 57 LAND (KM) 377 396 422 401 344 246 133 -90 -235 -405 -502 -707 -800 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.5 26.0 27.2 28.2 29.7 30.3 31.1 31.2 32.6 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.5 89.1 89.7 90.1 92.1 94.2 95.7 97.6 99.2 100.6 102.0 102.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 6 8 12 9 10 8 8 5 11 2 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):198/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 1. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 33. 39. 42. 44. 43. 42. 40.