* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DEAN AL041995 07/29/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 46 53 58 62 66 68 70 71 71 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 46 53 58 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 46 51 34 29 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 27 21 26 31 29 30 21 10 18 16 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 12 12 12 17 14 20 16 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 4 2 -6 -2 -9 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 147 134 119 109 91 51 46 40 47 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.0 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 158 160 165 171 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 138 143 149 154 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 11 12 13 11 15 12 16 13 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 64 64 63 62 65 67 69 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 22 21 36 26 9 -3 -5 -12 -13 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 11 2 20 0 19 11 18 64 9 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 429 442 407 312 256 156 42 -225 -457 -669 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.6 25.8 26.4 26.8 28.2 29.1 30.9 31.9 33.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 86.8 87.5 88.3 89.5 92.3 94.6 96.5 99.0 100.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 8 10 12 13 11 12 11 9 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):198/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 23. 28. 32. 36. 38. 40. 41. 41.