* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DEAN AL041995 07/29/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 45 52 61 70 76 81 85 89 91 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 45 52 61 70 76 81 85 89 91 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 24 20 18 17 17 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 10 7 4 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 6 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 130 113 63 25 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 165 166 168 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 140 150 151 148 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 12 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 63 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 8 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 23 36 42 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 12 -5 3 -4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 363 388 377 400 462 361 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.0 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.6 88.0 89.2 90.6 91.6 93.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 12 11 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):198/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 24. 29. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 22. 31. 40. 46. 51. 55. 59. 61.