* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DEAN AL041995 07/29/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 60 65 67 69 66 65 63 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 60 45 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 40 45 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) G05R 26 26 27 28 30 30 30 26 18 24 20 16 16 SHEAR (KT) 17 14 11 9 12 14 16 14 19 23 26 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 4 1 -4 1 -6 3 -8 -1 -5 5 SHEAR DIR 104 123 108 80 65 75 45 50 49 51 45 58 64 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.0 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 161 164 166 170 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 131 144 147 147 151 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 12 12 13 10 15 12 16 13 16 14 17 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 62 63 64 65 66 67 71 67 63 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 15 14 16 15 16 13 14 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 26 28 40 30 12 16 -15 0 -15 -10 -7 -33 200 MB DIV 64 25 0 14 3 12 14 12 54 4 30 6 58 LAND (KM) 343 355 326 279 256 267 103 -110 -291 -504 -596 -757 -833 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.3 28.1 29.7 30.5 31.6 31.8 32.9 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 87.2 88.2 89.6 90.6 93.1 94.7 96.1 98.2 100.1 101.2 102.3 102.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 11 11 10 11 8 10 10 8 5 8 2 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):198/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. -0. -0. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 30. 35. 37. 39. 36. 35. 33.