* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DEAN AL041995 07/29/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 61 66 70 73 73 72 70 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 54 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 48 54 34 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) G07R 25 22 26 33 33 30 24 14 23 22 23 15 18 SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 11 12 12 17 15 21 15 17 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -2 -7 -2 -8 -1 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 150 173 146 125 106 70 40 36 46 25 38 71 52 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 158 163 166 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 139 146 152 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 16 13 12 12 13 10 15 11 16 14 17 15 19 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 63 63 61 62 65 69 72 65 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 11 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 36 47 31 14 5 11 12 9 9 16 -18 200 MB DIV 43 19 6 11 -7 15 23 4 70 14 63 16 46 LAND (KM) 448 439 395 293 223 180 -18 -279 -464 -609 -735 -623 -611 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.5 25.8 26.5 27.1 28.1 29.2 30.8 31.5 31.8 31.9 31.2 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.2 87.7 88.7 89.8 93.1 95.2 97.6 99.6 101.5 103.2 105.3 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 8 11 14 12 12 11 7 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):198/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 19. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 31. 36. 40. 43. 43. 42. 40.