* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DALILA EP051995 07/29/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 60 60 57 54 47 40 37 30 25 17 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 60 60 57 54 47 40 37 30 25 17 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 59 59 59 56 53 50 48 47 45 42 38 V (KT) G08R 34 27 29 27 29 27 33 32 27 31 27 27 24 SHEAR (KT) 14 10 7 9 10 8 4 4 4 8 11 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 1 -1 3 3 5 SHEAR DIR 240 228 218 232 251 280 288 360 325 17 30 21 31 SST (C) 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.6 25.3 24.9 24.1 24.1 24.5 24.5 24.3 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 126 121 117 112 104 104 107 108 105 103 101 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 69 62 63 62 61 60 57 54 51 49 45 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 18 19 18 18 18 16 15 15 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 56 47 43 64 79 75 86 88 84 60 51 55 49 200 MB DIV 46 29 53 55 44 27 16 16 15 8 23 13 0 LAND (KM) 982 1049 1089 1166 1256 1412 1565 1775 1947 2086 2053 1841 1622 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.8 18.7 18.7 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.7 118.0 119.2 120.6 122.0 124.3 126.8 129.3 131.3 133.2 135.2 137.2 139.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 13 11 12 12 8 10 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):288/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -9. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -1. -8. -15. -18. -24. -30. -38.