* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DALILA EP051995 07/29/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 62 64 65 64 63 59 56 53 54 53 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 62 64 65 64 63 59 56 53 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 61 61 60 58 57 57 56 56 55 56 V (KT) G10R 50 30 30 30 30 33 37 38 32 36 32 36 36 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 8 8 10 9 6 5 6 7 8 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 1 4 0 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 252 242 258 247 248 270 283 318 281 343 304 337 308 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 138 136 132 132 130 129 127 125 125 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 65 67 67 67 66 65 65 64 61 59 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 18 19 19 20 20 20 19 17 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 62 54 58 74 74 78 99 101 100 97 99 95 84 200 MB DIV 71 57 47 54 55 51 24 41 49 29 5 36 24 LAND (KM) 1032 1159 1244 1337 1415 1590 1687 1780 1855 1973 2114 2220 2277 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.7 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.1 15.9 15.9 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 118.1 119.4 120.7 121.8 123.7 125.0 126.2 127.5 129.4 131.0 132.3 133.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 12 11 7 6 6 7 10 7 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):288/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 4. 1. -2. -1. -2.