* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DEAN AL041995 08/01/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 25 27 30 31 33 33 33 35 35 34 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 16 18 22 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 23 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -9 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 21 15 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 10 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 30 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 46 19 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -347 -426 -427 -359 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.6 30.9 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.6 98.8 99.7 99.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 806 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 9. 4. 0. -3. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 15. 15. 14.