* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/01/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 65 69 70 69 72 71 72 72 72 70 69 V (KT) LAND 60 61 65 69 62 50 53 52 36 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 64 62 45 48 52 36 30 28 27 27 V (KT) G01R 26 37 45 44 44 32 29 30 23 16 14 15 14 SHEAR (KT) 22 30 24 17 19 8 1 17 5 11 14 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 0 -1 1 -4 -2 4 2 0 -4 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 101 96 80 69 62 126 78 199 145 166 103 96 84 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.0 7.8 26.1 27.5 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 161 154 65 115 131 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 150 143 64 103 117 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 12 12 13 11 13 9 15 9 18 10 20 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 57 54 57 56 57 61 65 60 57 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 22 24 25 22 21 19 17 17 15 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 19 10 22 44 19 19 16 -19 -12 -24 -43 -65 -46 200 MB DIV 4 16 63 85 53 18 13 8 20 25 25 5 50 LAND (KM) 218 292 303 155 -9 40 93 22 -107 -305 -455 -601 -749 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 24.1 25.4 26.3 27.0 27.7 28.9 30.2 31.3 33.1 34.3 35.7 37.3 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 76.2 77.2 78.6 80.2 83.2 85.7 87.7 89.5 90.7 91.6 91.3 89.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 15 12 13 10 9 9 6 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 4. 2. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -0. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 10. 9. 12. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9.