* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DEAN AL041995 08/01/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 23 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 14 15 22 23 18 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 22 24 26 22 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -8 -6 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 22 16 12 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 10 8 13 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 69 65 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 10 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 18 3 1 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 43 19 31 42 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -326 -405 -418 -356 -339 -417 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.7 31.1 30.2 30.0 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.3 99.3 99.6 99.6 100.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 6 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14.