* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/01/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 65 70 71 68 68 66 67 67 66 64 60 V (KT) LAND 60 61 65 70 71 49 50 48 34 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 65 64 40 45 49 35 29 27 27 27 V (KT) G10R 35 43 46 46 45 29 32 28 26 18 16 13 11 SHEAR (KT) 22 30 23 14 14 11 3 17 8 13 14 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 -1 -3 0 -2 -2 3 2 -1 -4 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 93 92 79 66 59 151 140 197 126 162 103 108 89 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.1 17.9 8.5 27.6 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 161 155 75 65 132 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 149 150 143 71 64 117 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 13 12 12 10 13 9 14 9 17 10 18 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 57 55 59 59 60 61 67 60 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 24 27 27 24 21 19 18 18 15 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 26 16 30 49 27 14 9 -28 -26 -37 -43 -51 -61 200 MB DIV 19 30 66 84 49 29 2 -7 21 31 24 -1 25 LAND (KM) 292 328 325 185 31 21 91 24 -128 -311 -478 -613 -626 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.2 25.3 26.3 27.1 28.3 29.0 30.2 31.5 33.1 34.4 35.4 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.7 75.7 77.0 78.2 79.7 82.8 85.8 87.8 89.5 91.0 92.0 92.8 92.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 15 15 14 12 10 10 9 7 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 4. -0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 10. 11. 8. 8. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0.