* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 66 67 66 63 61 58 56 51 46 36 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 58 47 33 29 27 27 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 67 65 48 33 29 27 27 29 29 30 30 V (KT) G00R 26 33 32 28 29 17 12 13 10 14 13 14 15 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 8 11 11 15 24 29 29 38 36 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 1 -2 -1 -2 1 -3 5 0 3 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 115 141 172 150 122 126 109 111 93 90 78 71 74 SST (C) 28.1 25.9 27.3 6.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 113 128 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 99 112 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 10 9 13 14 8 15 9 17 8 10 3 6 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 61 61 69 69 65 57 52 51 46 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 19 15 15 13 18 18 19 13 850 MB ENV VOR 26 7 -6 7 -7 5 -5 -39 -26 2 12 17 -12 200 MB DIV 32 -1 17 26 35 35 41 23 36 6 36 55 35 LAND (KM) 121 82 73 -10 -86 -294 -441 -670 -801 -948 -530 -303 -347 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.1 29.8 30.5 31.2 33.0 34.1 36.2 37.6 39.5 40.8 41.3 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.8 86.8 87.7 88.7 90.7 91.7 92.1 90.6 86.7 81.1 77.5 77.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 11 7 10 13 21 21 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -8. -5. -5. -4. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -24.