* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERICK EP061995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 33 32 30 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 33 32 30 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 31 31 28 26 25 23 23 22 22 21 V (KT) G00R 31 29 27 25 23 23 21 20 20 20 19 16 17 SHEAR (KT) 20 16 17 16 19 15 14 12 8 7 2 1 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 3 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 280 267 252 254 257 264 276 303 286 330 334 258 302 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.4 25.7 25.4 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.6 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 136 134 128 119 116 112 109 109 106 102 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 68 64 65 64 63 60 57 53 49 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 20 20 18 17 15 13 12 11 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 95 91 83 83 80 74 78 64 58 43 36 31 23 200 MB DIV 75 33 34 40 47 7 0 -12 25 27 3 2 7 LAND (KM) 1077 1057 1027 1038 1046 1110 1175 1292 1366 1422 1448 1489 1511 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.3 114.9 115.9 116.8 118.7 120.4 122.1 123.3 124.2 124.7 125.5 126.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 11 10 10 7 8 6 3 3 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -5. -10. -14. -16. -20. -22. -25.