* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 66 68 70 70 68 64 61 57 52 51 45 V (KT) LAND 60 64 66 57 46 33 29 27 27 27 28 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 67 58 47 33 29 27 27 27 28 28 28 V (KT) G01R 27 35 34 29 28 20 13 14 10 12 10 11 11 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 11 7 12 11 14 21 22 29 30 31 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 4 -2 0 -2 0 -1 5 -5 10 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 106 143 169 138 115 121 111 125 108 108 105 110 92 SST (C) 28.7 25.9 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 113 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 100 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 8 12 14 8 15 8 17 9 17 7 10 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 60 60 68 68 64 56 51 48 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 24 23 23 23 22 18 15 12 13 12 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 32 16 0 6 -8 -3 -11 -30 -39 -55 -56 -41 -38 200 MB DIV 29 -2 11 20 31 37 19 24 20 -2 7 3 -7 LAND (KM) 131 82 63 -31 -91 -301 -413 -547 -624 -746 -777 -660 -498 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.1 29.9 30.7 31.4 33.1 34.0 35.2 36.0 37.3 37.7 37.8 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.8 86.7 87.6 88.5 90.3 91.2 91.3 90.7 89.5 87.8 84.2 81.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 9 5 5 6 8 10 17 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -10. -11. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 4. 1. -3. -8. -9. -15.