* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERICK EP061995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 33 33 29 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 33 33 29 26 21 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 29 27 25 24 22 21 19 17 V (KT) G01R 44 31 30 28 26 27 27 27 26 24 23 19 20 SHEAR (KT) 20 14 13 14 17 15 10 14 7 8 7 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 3 -1 0 -2 0 -2 0 0 4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 273 260 250 254 254 269 270 301 300 327 357 2 2 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.4 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.6 23.2 22.8 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 137 136 128 117 110 103 97 91 88 86 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 71 72 70 66 65 63 63 60 56 51 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 20 22 21 21 19 18 17 15 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 106 100 94 94 85 75 76 69 59 45 52 47 27 200 MB DIV 70 39 51 42 44 21 19 -9 5 2 3 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1085 1052 1054 1094 1130 1159 1190 1293 1330 1320 1357 1383 1431 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.6 17.8 18.6 19.3 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.4 115.4 116.5 117.5 119.2 121.0 122.9 124.2 125.0 125.9 126.6 127.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 11 11 10 10 11 9 6 6 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 3. 4. -0. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -33.