* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 66 66 66 60 52 47 42 39 34 28 21 V (KT) LAND 60 64 66 66 52 35 29 28 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 68 67 50 34 29 27 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) G02R 27 33 31 29 32 17 13 12 11 19 20 20 17 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 9 13 13 17 25 35 34 46 41 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -2 -1 -3 2 -3 3 1 7 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 127 144 167 144 121 125 104 100 82 62 63 76 95 SST (C) 28.7 25.9 28.5 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 113 144 66 67 68 66 70 72 76 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 100 125 64 65 65 63 67 69 72 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -53.4 -53.4 -54.2 -54.1 -55.3 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 9 13 14 8 15 10 16 6 6 2 5 700-500 MB RH 58 55 57 61 61 70 69 62 54 53 48 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 20 19 20 18 15 14 12 17 19 19 13 850 MB ENV VOR 19 -4 -9 5 -5 1 -8 -31 -6 81 38 34 4 200 MB DIV 31 8 18 26 36 27 42 29 45 25 50 24 4 LAND (KM) 132 82 83 11 -55 -283 -454 -692 -904 -768 -401 -380 -477 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.1 29.7 30.3 30.9 32.9 34.2 36.4 38.7 41.0 42.5 42.9 43.2 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.8 87.0 87.7 88.7 90.7 91.8 92.1 89.7 84.0 78.1 77.3 78.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 11 12 7 14 19 27 12 2 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. -1. -4. -11. -18. -23. -25. -27. -28. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -8. -5. -4. -4. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 6. 6. -0. -7. -13. -18. -21. -26. -32. -39.