* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERICK EP061995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 32 31 30 26 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 32 31 30 26 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 29 26 25 23 22 22 21 19 V (KT) G02R 39 33 34 31 29 29 26 28 25 26 28 28 23 SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 20 20 15 12 12 5 7 6 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 6 0 0 -1 1 0 0 2 7 4 7 SHEAR DIR 284 283 269 267 265 274 269 299 307 321 7 39 15 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.2 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.1 24.7 24.3 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 137 137 135 126 117 115 114 111 107 103 98 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 65 62 61 59 58 55 53 49 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 22 21 20 20 19 17 17 15 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 96 95 87 90 89 87 84 80 70 59 63 52 32 200 MB DIV 95 43 34 41 29 -28 -5 3 22 11 -7 1 -5 LAND (KM) 1050 1061 1066 1079 1091 1155 1236 1372 1511 1589 1603 1619 1616 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.8 17.6 17.9 17.8 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.8 115.6 116.4 117.3 119.4 121.4 123.3 125.0 126.1 126.7 127.3 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 9 10 7 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -4. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -24.