* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 63 63 64 62 59 58 54 49 45 42 37 V (KT) LAND 60 63 63 54 44 32 29 27 27 28 29 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 68 62 45 32 28 27 27 28 29 29 30 V (KT) G03R 28 32 29 26 27 17 13 13 12 12 11 12 13 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 9 12 14 16 22 31 33 36 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -3 -3 -5 -1 -2 8 -5 5 1 2 SHEAR DIR 124 139 175 164 135 142 117 112 90 97 98 97 88 SST (C) 22.7 28.0 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 137 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 121 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.9 -53.5 -54.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 10 9 13 14 8 16 9 18 9 15 6 11 700-500 MB RH 57 55 57 60 60 67 67 66 57 54 50 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 20 19 18 16 13 14 12 14 13 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 13 -5 -16 0 -10 -10 -13 -44 -44 -42 -23 -18 -28 200 MB DIV 30 -4 11 30 43 29 56 26 36 9 22 14 25 LAND (KM) 85 89 36 -2 -88 -309 -480 -641 -785 -912 -812 -514 -393 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.5 30.1 30.6 31.2 33.1 34.3 35.9 37.4 38.9 39.6 40.1 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 84.8 86.2 87.2 88.1 89.1 90.8 92.2 92.2 91.2 88.5 84.7 81.2 79.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 10 12 10 6 9 8 16 15 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -6. -8. -7. -8. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -23.