* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERICK EP061995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 27 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 27 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 31 30 28 27 26 25 25 24 23 23 V (KT) G03R 47 39 36 28 26 20 20 17 20 17 17 18 17 SHEAR (KT) 23 21 21 19 20 15 17 15 13 14 13 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 -4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 291 271 262 256 257 272 270 288 276 299 301 316 308 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 137 135 131 126 124 120 116 113 113 116 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 69 68 66 63 64 63 65 62 61 57 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 21 19 18 16 14 14 13 12 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 90 86 75 76 69 70 70 60 39 22 20 8 14 200 MB DIV 78 32 45 67 54 7 22 20 27 37 35 13 6 LAND (KM) 1026 1010 953 894 866 951 1085 1153 1113 1093 1091 1098 1068 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.3 16.9 16.8 16.6 17.2 17.6 17.9 17.9 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 112.8 113.0 113.6 114.4 116.5 118.3 119.1 119.3 119.5 119.8 119.9 119.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 8 10 11 11 6 2 4 2 1 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -13. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -9. -14. -18. -22. -25. -26. -26.