* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 68 71 74 76 76 77 76 73 69 64 60 V (KT) LAND 60 65 68 71 59 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 71 73 58 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) G04R 34 32 32 34 33 17 12 14 14 12 11 10 10 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 7 9 8 14 17 16 14 24 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 -3 0 -3 -2 -4 4 -1 4 0 10 SHEAR DIR 96 134 178 153 115 134 113 134 104 104 85 106 107 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.2 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 155 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 134 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 9 13 14 9 15 10 17 11 20 12 21 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 59 59 64 65 65 58 56 56 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 21 21 22 19 16 16 14 13 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 35 18 0 16 1 12 7 -2 -2 1 3 -23 -32 200 MB DIV 42 -4 9 26 27 27 52 6 13 18 17 9 -12 LAND (KM) 138 131 102 44 -38 -225 -278 -373 -383 -469 -501 -590 -646 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.9 29.5 30.0 30.7 31.9 32.3 33.1 33.1 33.8 34.0 34.9 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 86.3 87.3 88.2 89.2 91.7 93.1 94.1 95.0 95.5 95.8 95.6 95.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 12 8 6 5 3 3 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 13. 9. 4. -0.