* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERICK EP061995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 32 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 32 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 31 31 28 26 25 23 22 21 21 DIS V (KT) G04R 36 27 28 23 22 18 15 14 13 11 11 10 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 16 17 16 18 16 14 11 11 14 14 11 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 3 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -3 -5 -7 -5 N/A SHEAR DIR 293 272 255 258 263 278 282 299 286 313 312 324 N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.3 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.9 25.1 25.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 135 132 126 118 113 109 108 110 114 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 69 66 68 63 60 54 52 50 51 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 18 17 14 11 8 7 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 78 72 76 79 76 74 53 42 29 16 8 N/A 200 MB DIV 74 55 47 44 59 17 14 -3 31 15 13 7 N/A LAND (KM) 1060 1061 1028 1011 1022 1036 1053 1120 1108 1125 1098 1253 N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.2 18.0 18.2 18.7 18.7 18.4 17.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.6 115.1 115.9 116.8 118.1 119.4 120.5 120.8 121.0 120.4 121.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 10 9 8 6 5 3 2 2 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -18. -20. -22. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -15. -21. -26. -30. -32. -31.