* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 68 70 71 69 66 64 59 56 54 52 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 68 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 69 69 52 35 29 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 27 34 36 30 33 19 12 11 9 10 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 14 8 13 10 14 19 25 21 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 112 139 172 152 123 120 114 129 106 109 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 26.9 28.9 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 123 150 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 109 129 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 10 9 13 14 8 15 9 18 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 58 61 61 69 69 66 55 53 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 21 21 21 19 15 13 10 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 10 -4 12 1 18 10 -26 -22 -46 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 8 20 32 32 41 45 28 15 11 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 149 93 96 25 -44 -259 -393 -524 -582 -701 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.9 29.6 30.2 30.9 32.7 33.6 34.7 35.2 36.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.3 85.7 86.5 87.3 88.3 90.6 91.8 92.3 92.6 91.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 12 11 4 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 4. -1. -4. -6. -8.