* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERICK EP061995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 27 28 26 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 27 28 26 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 31 30 27 25 24 23 23 22 20 18 V (KT) G05R 49 42 39 36 41 41 40 41 42 45 40 35 34 SHEAR (KT) 21 19 18 14 14 13 6 6 2 5 3 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 10 5 5 3 1 2 0 1 3 8 4 4 SHEAR DIR 277 259 255 259 250 255 256 311 299 26 2 33 25 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.1 25.2 24.9 24.4 23.8 23.4 22.9 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 138 135 125 116 111 105 99 94 90 85 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 64 60 60 60 58 54 51 47 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 26 24 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 97 87 78 81 82 85 90 88 86 90 92 74 60 200 MB DIV 73 45 64 49 38 -8 6 -13 23 -1 -13 0 6 LAND (KM) 1141 1115 1090 1101 1121 1151 1246 1393 1465 1497 1505 1499 1521 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.2 15.8 17.0 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.1 21.0 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 114.9 115.7 116.6 117.6 119.6 121.8 123.9 125.5 126.5 127.2 127.8 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 10 11 11 12 11 8 6 6 5 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -4. -9. -15. -24.