* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 70 73 74 73 72 72 68 64 58 55 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 70 61 39 31 28 27 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 71 72 65 40 31 28 27 27 27 28 28 V (KT) G06R 39 32 33 30 31 18 12 12 11 12 11 11 13 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 7 9 12 13 18 17 19 29 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 -2 0 -4 0 -2 4 -1 6 0 5 SHEAR DIR 98 128 163 134 108 126 111 129 108 111 94 103 94 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 132 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 8 13 14 8 15 9 17 10 18 10 15 700-500 MB RH 57 55 57 61 61 67 68 67 59 56 52 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 22 21 22 20 16 14 13 12 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 30 14 4 15 -2 6 4 -21 -13 -39 -65 -75 -53 200 MB DIV 30 2 11 33 27 37 50 8 17 14 6 7 -1 LAND (KM) 151 126 115 45 -22 -197 -324 -444 -500 -602 -693 -816 -826 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.8 29.4 30.0 30.6 32.0 32.7 33.8 34.3 35.4 36.6 38.0 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 84.8 86.2 87.2 87.8 88.7 91.0 92.2 93.1 93.2 92.6 91.0 89.0 85.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 9 9 11 10 6 5 3 9 9 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 12. 12. 8. 4. -2. -5.