* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERICK EP061995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 31 30 28 27 26 25 24 23 23 22 V (KT) G06R 44 38 33 30 27 22 20 21 18 18 19 17 15 SHEAR (KT) 20 20 16 14 15 11 12 10 9 11 8 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 5 1 1 -2 -3 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 278 251 244 239 250 277 285 306 279 309 309 337 339 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.5 25.7 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.5 24.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 136 134 129 120 114 109 109 105 102 99 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 64 64 61 57 59 60 61 58 57 51 48 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 21 21 19 16 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 94 87 80 75 68 70 75 66 60 37 33 24 18 200 MB DIV 59 35 25 24 40 13 21 14 9 11 10 -5 15 LAND (KM) 1065 1038 983 949 932 996 1063 1167 1228 1284 1320 1359 1411 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.6 16.3 17.2 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 113.6 114.0 114.7 115.5 117.4 119.3 121.0 122.0 122.8 123.7 124.6 125.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 9 10 10 10 9 7 4 5 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 13. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -24. -27. -30.