* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 66 66 67 67 65 62 61 56 53 48 47 V (KT) LAND 60 64 66 66 52 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 65 67 65 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) G07R 24 29 27 25 28 17 14 11 10 9 7 7 7 SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 7 10 11 15 17 16 16 21 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 1 -3 8 -1 8 SHEAR DIR 106 137 172 148 120 132 98 131 107 116 88 104 87 SST (C) 28.1 25.9 27.3 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 113 127 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 100 110 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 9 13 14 8 15 9 17 10 20 11 21 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 59 60 67 67 65 58 55 53 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 19 19 19 18 15 13 11 8 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 31 13 -1 13 8 14 13 -13 -13 -32 -26 -24 -50 200 MB DIV 33 -2 5 24 34 40 52 3 11 3 7 10 17 LAND (KM) 121 80 72 11 -55 -247 -364 -446 -411 -489 -537 -589 -575 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.2 29.8 30.3 30.9 32.6 33.3 33.8 33.5 34.2 34.6 35.1 35.3 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 86.0 87.0 87.7 88.6 90.5 91.8 92.7 93.3 93.6 94.0 93.6 92.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 9 11 10 6 2 5 4 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. -4. -7. -12. -13.