* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERICK EP061995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 38 42 42 41 35 29 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 38 42 42 41 35 29 22 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 30 28 26 25 23 21 19 16 V (KT) G07R 44 35 33 38 47 45 49 53 44 36 34 33 32 SHEAR (KT) 18 13 10 11 11 10 11 3 7 8 11 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 7 3 1 2 2 10 5 4 6 6 9 SHEAR DIR 272 262 256 244 228 280 255 335 268 313 19 35 21 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.2 26.1 25.7 24.6 24.0 23.7 23.4 23.2 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 141 137 126 120 109 102 97 95 92 87 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 69 68 66 65 66 65 59 56 53 48 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 26 28 29 30 30 30 27 25 22 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 101 97 90 95 92 94 96 88 102 110 108 81 68 200 MB DIV 75 53 53 49 43 -1 40 7 27 19 6 1 0 LAND (KM) 1095 1109 1140 1222 1259 1343 1468 1504 1606 1678 1702 1735 1714 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.0 15.5 16.5 17.1 18.4 19.0 19.4 20.4 21.1 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.7 116.8 118.1 119.2 121.7 123.8 125.6 127.5 128.7 129.7 130.5 131.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 12 12 13 9 12 8 5 7 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 3. -1. -5. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 12. 11. 5. -1. -8. -14. -24.