* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 61 61 61 57 53 49 45 44 41 36 28 V (KT) LAND 60 62 61 50 41 31 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 58 48 39 31 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) G08R 24 31 30 24 25 17 13 13 11 16 17 16 20 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 14 9 13 15 17 27 35 31 37 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 -2 -2 -3 0 -4 4 -1 8 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 121 151 172 162 139 131 107 101 88 76 70 55 54 SST (C) 27.0 16.0 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 70 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 67 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.3 -53.3 -54.4 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 9 12 14 8 16 9 17 7 8 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 61 62 66 65 63 55 51 47 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 19 19 19 17 14 13 13 19 22 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR 21 -4 -17 -2 -11 -11 -24 -44 -34 29 3 23 8 200 MB DIV 33 -3 21 30 35 29 27 14 29 18 23 39 47 LAND (KM) 114 38 42 -42 -115 -344 -506 -717 -885 -702 -352 -251 -157 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.4 30.1 30.8 31.6 33.5 34.8 36.8 38.6 40.3 41.8 42.3 42.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.5 85.6 86.6 87.5 88.6 90.2 91.5 91.1 89.2 83.3 77.8 76.0 73.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 11 6 16 13 28 14 8 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -17. -20. -21. -23. -24. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -4. -2. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -11. -15. -16. -19. -24. -32.