* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERICK EP061995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 28 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 28 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 26 26 V (KT) G08R 41 36 34 26 25 21 18 18 20 19 19 18 15 SHEAR (KT) 23 24 23 19 18 13 12 12 13 13 12 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 0 -5 -4 -6 -2 -3 -5 -1 -5 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 274 251 243 245 255 285 305 301 289 309 304 297 287 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 139 137 135 131 125 122 117 115 116 116 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 74 71 72 68 65 67 65 64 62 62 60 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 19 17 16 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 99 84 73 70 65 56 65 60 50 31 24 17 22 200 MB DIV 57 26 29 26 25 11 18 17 26 34 26 17 -1 LAND (KM) 1063 1040 960 894 886 928 1040 1156 1198 1183 1137 1070 1020 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.2 17.1 17.3 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 112.8 112.9 113.6 114.6 116.4 118.3 119.8 120.5 120.4 120.1 119.4 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 10 11 11 10 8 6 2 1 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18.