* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERICK EP061995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 33 33 32 30 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 33 33 32 30 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 30 28 27 26 25 24 23 23 V (KT) G09R 36 30 29 24 24 22 23 23 21 18 17 16 17 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 15 16 17 15 15 13 12 14 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 4 -1 -4 -3 0 -5 0 -1 -5 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 282 266 258 261 261 279 286 283 269 285 304 333 302 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 135 135 130 127 124 120 116 116 116 124 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 70 68 68 68 67 65 65 61 60 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 18 17 17 16 15 15 14 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 89 81 78 81 77 55 61 47 33 16 18 8 4 200 MB DIV 72 40 59 63 77 57 35 20 5 -8 4 -9 -20 LAND (KM) 995 993 963 968 983 1020 1098 1110 1030 971 907 854 782 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.3 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.5 114.0 114.7 115.6 117.0 118.2 118.7 118.7 118.7 118.5 118.1 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 6 3 3 5 3 2 1 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -21. -22.