* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIN AL051995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 60 59 57 52 46 43 42 44 39 33 27 V (KT) LAND 60 62 60 47 39 31 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 60 47 38 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) G10R 27 36 30 26 28 17 13 14 18 35 38 19 16 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 8 12 11 17 26 34 34 27 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 -1 -1 -3 1 -1 6 3 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 137 149 175 139 119 129 109 98 69 59 64 83 99 SST (C) 25.2 21.0 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.8 20.0 21.3 22.6 23.9 10.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 83 71 72 74 76 79 86 94 99 64 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 76 67 68 69 70 71 78 84 84 62 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -53.3 -53.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 10 9 13 14 8 16 8 13 3 6 1 5 700-500 MB RH 57 55 56 61 62 71 70 65 60 47 39 42 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 22 21 21 20 16 17 20 29 29 25 19 850 MB ENV VOR 20 -1 -11 -4 -13 -13 -22 -29 13 37 35 60 64 200 MB DIV 24 1 9 19 39 30 45 36 44 56 27 28 -2 LAND (KM) 101 53 28 -38 -143 -380 -564 -855 -941 -684 -552 -333 -230 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.5 30.2 31.0 31.8 33.8 35.4 38.2 40.6 42.8 43.2 42.5 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 84.6 85.8 86.8 87.7 88.7 90.6 91.2 90.1 86.2 81.7 79.7 77.1 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 13 10 10 17 22 14 9 8 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -19. -24. -26. -27. -28. -29. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -6. -4. 2. 2. -1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -17. -18. -16. -21. -27. -33.