* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERICK EP061995 08/03/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 33 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 33 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 29 26 25 23 22 21 20 19 V (KT) G10R 35 27 30 27 27 24 20 18 18 17 18 16 17 SHEAR (KT) 21 17 18 20 18 12 12 10 6 7 6 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 1 0 3 1 0 -3 -2 0 3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 287 280 266 262 264 276 274 308 323 355 6 350 354 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.4 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 139 136 127 118 113 108 103 101 98 94 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 67 65 64 62 62 58 55 51 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 22 21 20 18 14 12 10 9 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 90 90 84 84 78 73 64 55 48 27 38 36 35 200 MB DIV 92 50 43 35 41 10 26 2 10 5 6 15 9 LAND (KM) 1103 1130 1136 1143 1116 1103 1121 1209 1274 1308 1426 1489 1527 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.5 16.8 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.4 19.3 19.4 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.2 116.0 116.7 117.2 118.6 120.0 121.6 122.9 124.0 125.5 126.4 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -12. -16. -20. -25. -27. -31.