* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GABRIELLE AL081995 08/11/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 57 57 55 55 57 60 61 61 61 61 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 57 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 57 49 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 20 24 27 26 30 15 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 1 9 13 13 12 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 2 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 97 225 227 228 191 252 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 25.1 6.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 103 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 130 91 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.9 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 15 14 16 19 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 77 76 74 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 14 12 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 37 47 47 53 82 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 32 32 57 52 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 112 92 81 40 -20 -369 -150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 22.8 22.8 23.0 23.0 22.5 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.7 96.8 97.0 97.3 98.0 101.5 104.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 11 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 12. 10. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16.