* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLOSSIE EP071995 08/11/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 63 57 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 63 57 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 66 64 61 52 43 34 28 24 21 18 DIS V (KT) G01R 36 32 28 32 28 25 21 17 15 12 13 12 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 3 3 7 10 13 17 13 10 10 9 9 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 4 1 4 1 9 -2 5 0 3 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 266 18 200 253 302 330 324 317 275 239 241 260 N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.0 25.1 24.0 23.2 23.1 23.2 22.8 22.6 21.8 21.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 124 114 103 93 90 92 86 86 76 75 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 6 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 73 73 71 66 64 58 56 55 56 56 53 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 22 21 18 15 13 10 8 6 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 90 103 104 93 67 67 67 63 55 43 27 N/A 200 MB DIV 31 28 0 -1 1 -26 -17 -12 -3 -20 -1 -15 N/A LAND (KM) 160 159 201 209 195 352 405 459 490 539 513 604 N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.7 24.1 24.2 24.0 24.2 24.1 25.0 25.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.0 112.0 112.9 113.8 115.7 116.6 117.2 117.9 118.5 119.1 120.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 11 10 7 3 4 2 5 3 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):322/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -14. -20. -27. -31. -36. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -20. -23. -24. -27. -27. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -8. -22. -38. -54. -67. -74. -82. -89. -92.