* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FELIX AL071995 08/11/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 67 71 76 84 92 95 100 101 103 101 98 V (KT) LAND 60 62 67 71 76 84 92 95 100 101 103 101 98 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 64 67 71 79 87 91 90 88 86 86 85 V (KT) G01R 93 45 54 46 56 58 56 65 66 63 63 56 56 SHEAR (KT) 14 4 3 3 6 8 7 18 14 18 5 14 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 5 2 1 -4 -2 2 4 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 345 0 5 319 95 131 97 128 107 137 96 195 161 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 151 151 149 143 141 139 135 135 134 129 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 146 149 143 142 133 127 124 117 120 116 111 103 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 16 15 14 15 15 14 15 14 14 13 14 13 14 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 57 57 57 55 58 58 57 55 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 33 36 36 38 39 41 41 44 43 44 41 39 850 MB ENV VOR 84 84 84 80 57 43 25 27 51 59 82 93 37 200 MB DIV 29 94 54 29 15 37 67 40 90 14 32 7 1 LAND (KM) 1259 1203 1082 946 879 691 675 793 932 1054 964 728 546 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 20.3 20.6 21.5 22.6 23.9 25.5 26.9 28.5 30.6 32.0 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.7 55.6 57.0 58.0 60.8 63.0 64.5 65.2 66.0 67.2 69.2 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 16 17 13 14 13 10 10 7 12 10 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 11. 16. 24. 32. 35. 40. 41. 43. 41. 38.