* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FELIX AL071995 08/11/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 66 71 77 86 93 96 101 102 106 103 99 V (KT) LAND 60 62 66 71 77 86 93 96 101 102 106 103 99 V (KT) LGE mod 60 61 64 67 71 79 85 87 86 83 82 80 78 V (KT) G02R 47 40 38 39 39 49 51 57 59 62 53 56 58 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 6 6 6 6 6 14 11 13 4 13 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 3 0 0 -1 0 3 5 1 2 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 102 92 85 23 328 140 88 147 117 120 238 177 129 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 150 147 145 140 134 132 129 130 127 122 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 150 144 138 133 131 120 116 111 112 106 102 101 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.2 -50.4 -50.7 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 14 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 700-500 MB RH 64 60 61 58 58 58 57 55 50 48 41 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 27 28 30 32 34 34 37 38 40 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 69 74 70 58 47 13 3 19 44 56 78 75 14 200 MB DIV 42 63 59 48 50 25 73 56 54 -8 1 -16 -16 LAND (KM) 1314 1119 1007 897 814 781 844 1016 1233 1225 1071 904 736 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.7 21.9 23.8 25.5 27.4 29.4 31.5 33.5 35.0 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 55.2 56.3 57.8 58.8 61.0 62.7 63.7 63.7 63.6 64.0 64.5 65.1 STM SPEED (KT) 24 18 15 13 10 15 11 11 9 11 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 17. 26. 33. 36. 41. 42. 46. 43. 39.